Australian Grain exports suffer at the hand of drought…

By Peter McMeekin

The grain marketing season in Australia concluded at the end of September, and with last week’s release of that month’s export data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics came the twelfth and final chapter of the nation’s 2023/24 grain export dossier.

While analysis of the data reveals a sharp decrease in export volumes compared to the record 2022/23 season, it did not come as a surprise after the 2023 harvest volumes were down dramatically year-on-year due to drought, especially in Western Australia and New South Wales, the nation’s top producing states.

Total exports of the top four commodities, wheat, barley, canola and sorghum, fell 24.9 per cent or 11.88 million metric tonne to 35.88MMT, collectively. The program was behind from the get-go, with shipments in the first quarter of the marketing year falling by 19.1 per cent compared to the previous corresponding period. Exports in the subsequent three quarters were down 20.7, 30.5 and 30.0 per cent, respectively.

The importance of, and reliance on China as a destination for Australian grains stood out in the 2023/24 data. China collectively accounted for 33 per cent of all bulk and container exports of the top four commodities, up from 21.8 per cent in the 2022/23 marketing year and 22.0 per cent the season prior.

From a monthly perspective, the biggest shipping month across the four commodities was January, with a total of 4.08MMT, compared to March of the previous season when 5.4MMT was exported. In fact, January was the only month above the 4.0MMT threshold in the 2023/24 export matrix compared to the entire December to May period in the 2022/23 marketing year.

However, the decline in export volume in 2023/24 was restricted to wheat and sorghum only. Canola shipments were almost exactly the same as the previous season, and barley staged a dramatic, China-led export recovery after Beijing dropped the exorbitant import tariffs on Australian barley in early August last year.Total barley exports in 2023/24 finished at 7.91MMT by the end of September, 0.83MMT or 11.7 per cent higher season-on-season. December was the peak month, with a record 1.29MMT shipped, eclipsing the previous record of 1.26MMT set in March of 2017. While Western Australia shipped the biggest volume, it did fall from 4.36MT in 2022/23 to 4.0MMT last season. This decrease was almost entirely nullified by an increase of 0.31MMT in South Australia to 1.98MT. The shining light was Victoria, where a huge harvest last year saw barley shipments jump by 91.6 per cent to 1.88MMT.

Unlike the previous three seasons, barley exports in 2023/24 were dominated by China, with 6.13MMT or 77.5 per cent of the shipped volume discharged at a myriad of the nation’s bulk ports and container terminals. The program to China was also heavily front-ended, with 68.8 per cent in the first half of the season and 31.2 per cent in the last six months.

ith the rise of China came the fall of Saudi Arabia, exports to which fell from 1.83MMT in 2022/23 to zero last season, emphasising its position as a market of last resort for Australian barley exporters.

Japan was the second biggest barley destination in 2023/24 at 0.87MMT or 11 per cent of the annual volume. The third biggest customer at 0.22MMT, or 2.8 per cent of sales, was Mexico, a market nurtured in recent years as a consistent and vital buyer of Australian malting barley.

Wheat exports for the season totalled 19.75MMT, a 37.8 per cent fall from 31.77MMT a season earlier. In volume terms, the biggest casualty was Western Australia, where shipments came to just 8.4MMT compared to 13.14MMT in 2022/23. Exports out of New South Wales fell from 5.38MMT to 2.24MMT, and Queensland and South Australian volumes were 1.86MMT and 1.89MMT lower, respectively. Victorian wheat shipments were only 0.39MMT lower than the previous season after a record wheat harvest at the end of last year boosted the state's exportable surplus.

While less dominant than in barley, China was still the top wheat export destination, receiving 19 per cent of total shipments. However, at 3.76MMT, Chinese purchases in 2023/24 were just 49.5 per cent of the previous season as lacklustre domestic demand eroded import volumes. The program to China dropped off dramatically in the last half of the year, with less than 20,000 metric tonne exported in the last quarter, all in containers.

Indonesia was the second biggest wheat customer last season at 3.24MT or 16.4 per cent of the total, and the Philippines took the bottom step on the podium at 2.35MMT or 11.9 per cent. The next four in finishing order were Yemen, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam, with 7.8, 6.1, 6.0 and 6.0 per cent of total sales, respectively.

With Canola exports unchanged, the primary destination for Australian seed remained the European Union, although shipments did fall from 3.2MMT or 52 per cent of 2022/23 sales, to 2.47MMT or 40.2 per cent of 2023/24 sales. The three other primary destinations were Japan with 1.33MMT, 21.6 per cent of total canola exports, the United Arab Emirates with 0.77MMT, or 12.5 per cent and Pakistan with 0.66MMT, or 10.8 per cent. Western Australia remained the key export hub, accounting for 52 per cent of the nation’s canola shipments. The national program was spread relatively evenly across the entire marketing season, highlighting the tightening global balance sheet.

Sorghum exports from October 2023 to September 2024 were 18 per cent, or 0.68MMT lower than the previous corresponding period, primarily due to a drop in demand from China. However, the dominance of China as a proportion of the total program increased from 86.2 per cent to 93.9 per cent season-on-season. Shipments out of New South Wales were down by less than 0.1MMT, but the Queensland program suffered to the tune of 0.6MMT compared to the 2022/23 export task.

Other Australian grain exports of note in the 2023/24 marketing year were 1.51MMT of lentils, with India and Bangladesh the primary destinations, 0.5MMT of chickpeas, with Bangladesh and Pakistan the main buyers, 0.43MMT of lupins with sales to The Netherlands and South Korea accounting for almost 80 per cent of the program, and 0.3MMT of oats, 77.4 per cent of which was marked as destination China.

Call your local Grain Brokers Australia representative on 1300 946 544 to discuss your grain marketing needs.