BOM's May to July outlook - Average rainfall
- By: "Farm Tender" News
- Rural Property News
- Apr 13, 2018
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Outlook
* The May to July rainfall outlook, issued 12 April 2018, shows the far southeast of Australia is likely to have a wetter than average three months. Parts of northern Australia are also likely to be wetter than average, however, as May-July is the start of the northern Australian dry season, very little rainfall is needed to exceed the median. The rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months.
* May to July daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for southern Australia.
* Night-time temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for southern parts of Australia while most of Queensland is likely to have cooler than average nights.
* May days and nights are likely to be warmer for much of the country.
* The El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific Ocean is neutral, and is expected to remain so for the coming season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also neutral, with the possibility of a negative IOD event from June. With mostly neutral climate drivers, there is no strong push towards broadscale wetter or drier conditions across the country.
Watch here - https://youtu.be/k80hBcOuBJE
Rainfall: Wetter three months likely in far southeast Australia
* A wetter than average May to July is likely for eastern Victoria extending into southeast NSW, and Tasmania. Parts of northern Australia are also likely to be wetter, however, rainfall during the start of the northern Australian dry season (May-September) is typically low, meaning little rainfall is needed to exceed the median. Elsewhere, the chances of a wetter or drier season are roughly equal.
* Historical outlook accuracy for May to July rainfall is moderate over western and southern WA, the southern NT, southeast SA and large parts of the eastern States. See map for more detail.
Temperature: Warmer days and nights in the south, cooler nights in the northeast
* May to July daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for southern Australia, including southwest WA, southern SA, Victoria and Tasmania. Chances are highest (greater than 80%) in Tasmania.
* Night-time temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for southern Australia while Queensland is likely to have cooler than average nights.
* May days and nights are likely to be warmer for much of the country.
* Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate to high over most of Australia for May to July. Minimum temperature accuracy is also moderate to high for most of Australia, except parts of southern WA and most of southeast mainland Australia where accuracy is moderate to low.
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