Hay Report - Jack Frost Bites

For the fortnight up to the 18th of September 2024.

By Dwain Duxson

Well, that will more than likely turn things on its head.

I remember back when I was on the Farm, and the Southern and Eastern States had a massive Frost, which buggered most of the Crops. My memory is not great when it comes to years, but I was reliably informed by a mate who said it was 1997. I think it was early October. I remember the Canola pods turning to mush. In the Wimmera area of  Victoria, it was something like -6 or -7, and in other areas, it was colder. What was your recollection of it?

The Frosts that have happened over the last few days might not have been as severe as the 97 Frots, but most think they will inflict some sort of damage. Many will be making decisions over the next fortnight as to what they might do when it comes to cutting Crops. It will be made on a paddock-by-paddock basis.

So it looks like there will be two reasons why Farmers will cut Crops: one because of Frost and the other because Crops in areas are running out of moisture fast, with areas in SA already done and dusted.

What does this mean for the domestic and export Hay industries? I think one thing we can take to the bank is that there might be more Hay around than we expected. What that will do to the prices of Hay will yet to be determined. We are all making predictions as to where prices will land, but until we get all the Hay baled up and accounted for, we won't know where prices might settle.

Currently, prices are yet to align between what sellers want and what buyers are prepared to pay, and that's where we are at right now.

It just proves that a week is a long time in Farming, especially in Spring.

So, we are in wait-and-see mode right now.

We have been told by someone in the know that Vetch production in Victoria will be down at least 50 per cent (you think SA would be more) due to the late start and the lack of bulk. At this stage quality is looking fairly good.

On another note, I travelled through the Wimmera late last week, and whilst the Crops were holding on for dear life, the Pastures were pretty much shot, and it's going to be a long Spring and Summer for those with Livestock. There could be a mass sell-off of Sheep and Cattle coming soon.

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What's happened to Hay prices over the last fortnight?

New Season Vetch $325 to $385 a tonne depending on where you are. NSW $325 and VIC $355 to $385 a tonne.

Note - All the rest below are old-season prices.

The best Cereal/Oaten Hay is ranging from $220 to $320 a tonne.

Vetch Hay is making between $265 and $330 a tonne.

Lucerne Hay is around $400 a tonne.

The very best Shedded Straw is making $150 a tonne.

We go around the grounds to see what our Farm Tender Salespeople have to say:

Paul Grayling - Mallee, Vic based

Paul said - This last fortnight has seen a fair bit of new season Hay hitting the ground and more decisions made as to whether to add to that. Pricing is still to find that Sweet Spot with a few sellers, perhaps on the high side, to get the Hay to the target areas. That will settle, and the balance will be found. Its looking like the quality will be there this year as far as weather damage during curing goes. In my opinion, this is needed as what is left from old seasons is far from A1.

Shane Ruyg - Qld based

Shane said - We are starting to hear/see that new season Vetch Hay is being baled and plenty more Crop down on the ground drying, waiting for its turn to be baled. Also, there is word that a lot of Cereal Crops were Frost damaged this week, and some have already been knocked down for Hay. Pricing is conflicting for new season atm and will settle down once we see more in a bale and demand picks up. Old season Hay and Straw is still being sold, and we will continue to see this as we get further into the new season.

Mike Pickard - On the road

Mike said he just talked to a Hay contractor in Queensland; they are flat out cutting and carting Cereal Hay from Hebel and the Mungindi region. This will be going to existing clients within the feedlot industry in Northern New South Wales and Southern Queensland. Elsewhere, Hay inquiries are a little bit quiet. There are still some good current season Vetch Hay available with reasonable quality and plastic shedded in the Riverina. Talking to a few in Central New South Wales, where there may be a fair area of frosted Crop from the Riverina up into Central West Slopes and Plains. Time will tell how much damage. Anyone who has the chance to produce some good quality Hay should do okay in the current market. It will be interesting to see where the market will sit once it is in a bale.

Jim Oehms - Northern Country, Vic based

Jim said - Although Hay enquiries are not as in demand as around a month ago, it is still very highly sought after. Mostly Vetch, Wheaten, and Oaten. There has been a lot of talk around from who I speak to that it looks like a lot of Cereal crops will now be cut as Hay or as grazing as the moisture is just not there. Vetch has also started being cut around parts of Vic/NSW and SA, with prices a bit uncertain right now for the new season stuff. There will be a fair few holding onto what they do, cut and stockpiling, from what I have heard.

End of message.

For more information on selling or buying Hay contact the following:

Paul Grayling – 0447 069 082 or paulg@farmtender.com.au

Shane Ruyg – 0447 922 604 or shaner@farmtender.com.au

Mike Pickard – 0429 677 636 or mikep@farmtender.com.au

Jim Oehms -- 0481 102 288 or jimo@farmtender.com.au

Or 1300 Farming (1300 327 646)

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