Hay Report - Let's scenario play

For the fortnight up to the 4th of September 2024.

By Dwain Duxson - An Ag Enthusiast

As we write the season is taking some real shape. Some for the better and some for the worse. Today we want to do some scenario playing as to what the new Hay season might bring us.

The one common factor with the Hay job right across the country is that stocks of Hay have been decimated, and there is very little around. We are starting with a clean slate.

Scenario 1 - The biggest Hay Gowing areas of SA and Victoria and under stress. And there is a chance there will be a significantly reduced quantity of Hay to come of this area than it usually produces. If there is a cut-off spring, there might be more acres of Hay cut in these areas as it might be better from a margin perspective to make Hay instead of Grain.

If the Crops get moisture stressed, then pastures that are further behind than the Crops, so grazing paddocks, will be seriously affected, and they will have to go into a supplementary feeding pattern earlier than they like.

The opportunity - Those to the North where Crop bulk is good to excellent might want to consider making more Hay than usual, as there might be a rare occasion where Hay comes from the North and heads South. With the realisation that there might be reduced quantities of Vetch Hay around, the opportunity might be there for both Dryland and Irrigated Lucerne Hay Growers to supply that Protein market.

Scenario 2 - With the season determining the yield, it's a big opportunity for Hay Growers to focus on quality. Bale weights are crucial, and I just listened to an excellent webinar that AFIA and Feed Central put on, where they outlined the importance of Bale weights. See the scenario at the bottom of the page, where the higher Bale weight can be an advantage for both the seller and buyer.

As for quality, its all about producing the best quality Hay you can. I just heard in the webinar that it's not quite ready, don't touch it, go to the pub for a while, go home and come back a few days later, and it will be ready. Patience is the key here.

The opportunity - You will be at the front of the buying cue if you have top-quality Hay with heavy Bale weights. Another opportunity might be if you don't have very good quality, then it will still makes decent money. We have seen all the poor-quality 2022 Hay sell out. This would be classified as a relief to many Hay Growers who thought they might be stuck with it.

Scenario 3 - The last thing we need is a two or three week dry period that will reduce yields in the south and then have the heavens open up during the cutting and curing period. This would be the worst nightmare.

The opportunity - This puts the guys in the North with the big yields in the box seat again. Most will be adamant they are sticking with there Grain Harvest programs, but there is an opportunity here for them to make a better margin with Hay.

There could be many more scenarios playing out here. If you have a scenario you are facing, please reply to dwaind@farmtender,com.au

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What's happened to Hay prices over the last fortnight?

Note - We are working on old season prices here.

The best Cereal Hay made up to $320 a tonne this week.

Top 2023 Vetch Hay peaked at $390 a tonne this week.

Good quality Lucerne Hay off Irrigation is made $450 a tonne, and off Dryland, it is making $350 a tonne.

The very best Shedded Straw is making $150 a tonne.

We go around the grounds to see what our Farm Tender Salespeople have to say:

Paul Grayling - Mallee, Vic based

Paul said - We have seen the Hay job slow up as we fast approach the new season. Some areas are fairly close to pressing up, and many others are either cutting or thinking about it. With the way the weather is shaping up, we could get a good run at curing this year, which is well overdue to get some quality back into the market. As per the norm, no one wants to be the first to throw a figure out there, although some have begun. I think the price will settle in a few weeks' time, and freight will still be an issue as there are quite a few mouths needing to be fed, but unfortunately, most will be hundreds of K's away from good growing areas.

Shane Ruyg - Qld based

Shane said - As we get closer to the new season Harvest, we are seeing enquiry drop off, and it is definitely nothing like it was a month ago. Also, with some rain down south and the warmer weather, this has seen some easing in demand. But in saying this, we have hit a patch of dryer-than-normal conditions in the Nth Wimmera & Mallee areas along with SA, which is having an adverse effect on the up-and-coming crops. I am hearing Vetch Crops are currently being knocked down and ready for baling in some areas, and not long after, we will see some Cereal Crops come down also. There are some interesting times ahead and hopefully more rain and answers to a tough year down south, but NSW/QLD is looking at a good season at this stage with some good Vetch looking to be cut soon.

Mike Pickard - On the road

Mike said - Just talking to a Hay Supplier, and he has contracted Wheaten Hay in central New South Wales out of the shed in the mid $300's per tonne for new season 24/25. This will be going to existing clients within the Feedlot industry in northern New South Wales and Southern Queensland. Elsewhere, Hay inquiries are a little bit quiet. There are still some good current season Vetch Hay available with reasonable quality plastic Shedded in the Riverina. There is a bit of frosted Crop in central Queensland, which will be cut for Hay, but that will supply the local area. Extremely warm conditions have been prevalent in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, where some record temperatures have been set for winter months, with some areas reaching as high as 35° in the Cropping areas.

Jim Oehms - Northern Country, Vic based

Jim said - Although with recent pieces of rain has been hit-and-miss, Hay is still moving quite rapidly but not as much as about a month ago. All varieties are being nibbled at, and Silage and Straw as well. After the recent weather events with the winds, etc, there has been Crop damage and knocked down due to this, and some have already started to cut their crops now over in the Wimmera areas from some I have been talking to. And it seems that from central NSW up to southern QLD they are having a good season so far and some have already started to cut this season. There is a lot of talk around what prices new season Hay will be on the market for, and the prices are varying a fair bit, but we will just have to see once this has been baled, I think.

End of message.

For more information on selling or buying Hay contact the following:

Paul Grayling – 0447 069 082 or paulg@farmtender.com.au

Shane Ruyg – 0447 922 604 or shaner@farmtender.com.au

Mike Pickard – 0429 677 636 or mikep@farmtender.com.au

Jim Oehms -- 0481 102 288 or jimo@farmtender.com.au

Or 1300 Farming (1300 327 646)

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