Hay Report - Two-speed Hay market

For the fortnight up to the 4th of October 2024.

By Dwain Duxson

 
The big frost just proves to us how quickly things can change in the Ag space. What looked like a low supply scenario has changed, and the frost and dry have fattened up the Hay balance sheet. Just how much will be around is anyone's guess. What we do know is that it will be more than we expected.
 
What will happen, though, is that the market will be a two-speed one, with an oversupply of Cereal and Canola Hay and an undersupply of Vetch and Lucerne Hay. We think that the Cereal and Canola Hay market will be buyer-friendly, but anyone with Vetch or Lucerne Hay to sell will be in the box seat.
 
Currently, the Hay market, from a sales point of view, is ticking along. I did a trip from central Vic to the Wimmera areas, and pastures are all but shot, and many Livestock will go onto Crops that aren't going to make it. This will be temporary as the feed won't last too long. Livestock will need to be fed with something and you would think that Grain prices will rise to a point where Hay then becomes a viable option.
 
Another issue is that there is a lot more work involved in the marketing and selling of Hay. With Grain you can sell that any day of the week, but Hay is so much different. That's where we can help. My suggestion is to get your Hay listed as soon as it's in the bale, get the test off and when it comes back, add that to your listing and ask one of our sales team to get your updated listing back to the top of the page.
 
Another thing that not many have thought about is the Seed market for next year. There could be a big scramble that's about to emerge.

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What's happened to Hay prices over the last fortnight?

New Season Vetch $315 to $385 a tonne, depending on where you are.

The best Cereal/Oaten Hay is ranging from $255 to $280 a tonne.

Lucerne Hay is around $400 a tonne.

The very best Shedded Straw is making $150 a tonne.

We go around the grounds to see what our Farm Tender Salespeople have to say:

Paul Grayling - Mallee, Vic based

Paul said - Paul was on leave at the time of writing.

Shane Ruyg - Qld based

Shane said - How things can change so quickly with frost ripping through Cereal and Canola Crops through VIC/NSW and SA, which will have a huge effect on the Hay and Grain season ahead. Lots of Cereal Crops have been dropped and we are starting to see a couple of listings appear on our site along with Vetch Hay that is now in a bale with some already feed tested. In the coming weeks, we will see how much damage has been done out there and what quantities are likely to hit the market, but right now, it's only in its infancy, so watch this space.

Mike Pickard - On the road

Mike said - With a fair area of southern New South Wales being frosted. There will be a reasonable amount of Cereal Hay coming onto the market where the Price will fall/land will be interesting. Those in New South Wales will have to price accordingly to attract buyers from further south, given freight costs are high at the moment. There are areas of Vetch being baled at the moment, with reasonable tests in areas around central New South Wales and the top end of the Riverina. Back up in Queensland, Feedlots are still securing Hay for the upcoming season, with all the hay contractors fairly busy. Next to no Straw has been cut in central Queensland, with some contractors moving south to try and pick up work

Jim Oehms - Northern Country, Vic based

Jim said - The Hay job is still very busy, as with the lack of rain in the western areas of Vic and in SA, where most of the Hay is being taken too. Cereals, Vetch, Wheaten Hay, etc, are all sought after. Frost damage in widespread areas is still being assessed right now, but a few I have spoken to have a fair bit of damage, and people they have been talking to also have. New season Hay is being cut now and starting to get put into sheds in some areas, and some have only just started. It will be interesting to see what prices the new season Hay will be as a bit of price variety is the talk and a few EOI on new season Hay as well to see what that generates. Feed tests on new Hay would be imperative also, I would think.

End of message.

For more information on selling or buying Hay contact the following:

Paul Grayling – 0447 069 082 or paulg@farmtender.com.au

Shane Ruyg – 0447 922 604 or shaner@farmtender.com.au

Mike Pickard – 0429 677 636 or mikep@farmtender.com.au

Jim Oehms -- 0481 102 288 or jimo@farmtender.com.au

Or 1300 Farming (1300 327 646)

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