Mecardo Analysis - Alpaca prices going gangbusters
- By: "Farm Tender" News
- Ag Tech News
- Feb 26, 2019
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By Andrew Woods | Source: WTiN, RBA.
Wool is not the only animal fibre trading at high price levels. Alpaca prices are trading at high levels currently in both Australian and US dollar terms. This article takes a quick look at alpaca prices during the past decade and provides some deciles tables for alpaca tops.
The World Textile Information Network (WTiN https://www.wtin.com/ ) provides weekly quotes for alpaca tops prices. The alpaca quotes are for tops on-board ship, so they will not translate directly back to an on-farm price but the historical price relativities of the top price will be relevant to Australian domestic prices. For a longer view of alpaca top prices go to http://www.alphatops.com/market/alpaca/ for price graphs extending back to the early 1980s. Note that these price series are in US dollar terms.
Figure 1 shows a price series for baby alpaca tops for the past decade in Australian dollar terms. In South America, baby alpaca has a fibre diameter of around 22 microns. The price in Figure 1 is effectively at decade highs. The AlphaTops price chart shows a slightly different picture with baby alpaca prices currently slightly below 2014-2015 highs. Either way, prices are at good levels.
The Baby Alpaca top price series does not have much of a correlation with wool prices (Merino nor crossbred), cotton, acrylic and polyester staple. It does have a good correlation (when looked at in rolling 5-year price ranks) with cashmere though. This is a little surprising in that cashmere is in the order of 6-8 microns finer than baby alpaca.
Figure 2 shows a price series for fine spinning alpaca top. It is has been discounted by up to 40% against the baby alpaca price, but following its strong price rises since the autumn of 2017, it is now trading at 90% of the baby alpaca price.
Figure 3 shows a price series for adult alpaca tops, which in South America will come in on average around 26 microns. It has also picked up in relation to the baby alpaca price. In 2014 it traded at about 1/3 of the baby alpaca price and now is trading around 55% of the fine alpaca price. The adult price series has a closer relationship with cotton and broader Merino prices (although this can be variable).
It seems 24 to 26.8 micron wool is often used in alpaca blends, however, the correlation between these crossbred micron category prices and the alpaca top series is tenuous at best.
In Table 1 10 year percentiles are provided for the three series shown in this article, in Australian dollar terms.
Key points
* International alpaca prices are trading at or very close to decade highs in Australian dollar terms.
* The broader alpaca price series have picked up markedly in relation to the finer alpaca prices since early 2017.
* Fine alpaca prices have a reasonable relationship with cashmere prices.
* Broader, adult alpaca prices have a reasonable relationship with cotton prices.
What does this mean?
Alpaca prices are high, as are Merino and crossbred wool prices. The high wool prices will be helping alpaca prices simply because wool is a bigger volume natural fibre with a crossover in fibre diameter but history shows prices for these fibres can march to their own tune. As happens in the wool market, there is significant variation in the basis between the prices for different grades of alpaca. At present these differences have narrowed markedly in the past couple of years.
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