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By Angus Brown | Source: MLA, ALFA, ABS.
The end of March brought with it another record for cattle feedlots, with numbers on feed hitting a new all-time high. While some of the usual suspects contributed to the record numbers, there were also more surprising trends.
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The headline number from the MLA/ALFA Cattle on Feed Survey at the end of March was 1.146 million head of cattle on feed nationally. The total numbers of cattle on feed was 3% higher than in December and 12% higher than March 2018 (Figure 1). The new record was 1.7% higher than the previous record, set last September.
It is easy to jump to the conclusion that cheaper store cattle in the first quarter of the year drove feedlots to load up, but this was not entirely the case. The number of cattle exiting feedlots was down markedly, with 8% fewer grainfed cattle marketed.
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This meant that placements of cattle on feed didn’t need to be at record levels, in fact, they were also down on December, albeit by just 2%. Placements for the March quarter were the fourth highest on record, but still at pretty high levels historically.
We know high slaughter rates in the first quarter were driven by female kill and it seems this has led to fewer cattle being required from feedlots. The proportion of cattle slaughtered which were grainfed in the March quarter fell to 37.4%, from 42.5% in December.
The biggest feedlot state, Queensland, set a new record for cattle on feed numbers, up 4% on December and 14% on March 2018. Queensland did, however, only break its previous record by 0.2%. Lotfeeding in South Australia has been expanding rapidly. While it still only holds 4.3% on the total, SA has grown 59% in the last year and is running at 97% capacity.
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NSW was the only state with falling numbers of cattle on feed, down 2% on December and 1% on the same time last year. Marketings in NSW were at similar levels, but placements were still not high enough to replace those sold.
With record numbers of cattle on feed, yet lower marketings, we get a strong carryover of cattle. That is, there are more cattle that have been on feed for more than three months. Figure 3 shows a sharp rise in the number of cattle which were carried over in the March quarter. A new record in Queensland, but somewhat tempered by NSW.
Key points
* Cattle on feed reached a new record high at the end of March at 1.146 million head.
* Fewer cattle exiting feedlots, along with steady placements led to the increase.
* With strong marketings likely, demand for replacement feeders should be strong.
What does this mean?
Record cattle on feed obviously means that we are due to see record numbers exiting feedlots this autumn and winter. The backlog of cattle in Queensland especially will no doubt fill holes when the supply of females and grass finished cattle ease. It’s likely we’ve already seen this to an extent, as the lotfeeding data is a month and half old.
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