Mecardo Analysis - Fewer ewes in the east, more in the west
- By: "Farm Tender" News
- Ag Tech News
- Jul 02, 2019
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By Angus Brown | Source: MLA, AWI.
There is little doubt the sheep flock is on the wane with the dry weather. The February Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA)/Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) survey offers some insight into the state of the breeding ewe flock. It also gives us some idea why there aren’t many new season lambs expected to hit the market in coming weeks.
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Strong sheep and lamb slaughter rates would be expected to see the flock decline. We thought it would have shown up last year, but the official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) numbers suggested that the flock was yet to decline last June.
The MLA/AWI numbers for June-18 were revised higher in the February edition, but it differs a little from the ABS number of ewes. The February-19 number of breeding ewes on hand was the lowest since February 2017, at 40.4 million head. Figure 1 shows that the number of breeding ewes on hand at the end of February was down 5.2% on February 2018, and down 6% on October 18.
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A decline of just over 2 million ewes in a year is not great news for lamb or sheep supply for the coming year. On the east coast, the supply dearth is worse. Figure 2 shows the state by state decline in breeding ewe numbers of the past year.
WA has gained 800,000 head, or 12%, as a reasonable season and strong wool and lamb prices did what we would expect. SA also gained 7%, which, combined with WA helped cushion the large falls in other states.
The MLA/AWI survey reported massive 40% declines in Queensland and Tasmania, with absolute numbers of 800,000 and 900,000 head respectively for the two smallest sheep states. The two largest sheep states, NSW and Victoria have the same declines by number, 800,000 in NSW and 900,000 in Victoria, but percentage wise they were obviously a lot smaller. The east coast breeding ewe decline came in at 3 million head, or 8%.
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Key points
* Breeding ewe numbers declined to a two year low on a national level at the end of February
* In WA ewe numbers are up, but they have fallen heavily on the east coast
* Lower breeding ewe flocks should result in a marked decline in lamb population
What does this mean?
The shift in breeding ewe flocks should have predictable impacts on lamb and sheep supplies. WA should see a lift in lamb supply this year, and likely further flock building.
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On the east coast, a 3 million head decline in the breeding ewe flock should result in a 2.5-3 million head fall in the lamb crop, purely from having fewer ewes. A lot depends on how marking rates behave for autumn and spring lambs, which is where much of the year’s lamb supply comes from, but they would have to be extraordinary to make up for the dearth in ewes.
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