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By Angus Brown | Source: ABS, MLA.
The Female Slaughter Ratio (FSR) has been running hot, with the latest slaughter data keeping it at 58% for May. May was the third consecutive month with a FSR above 58%, and this week we look at how many females have actually been killed this year, and how this might impact the herd.
There is little doubt that 2019 to date has seen extraordinary female slaughter rates. We know that females have been making up a larger than normal proportion of slaughter, but the absolute numbers give another angle on the decline of the herd.
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Figure 1 shows the number of female cattle killed for the year to May. For the year to May there were 1.914 million head slaughtered. This is a massive 23% higher than 2018, and the ten year average.
The female kill in the first five months has only been higher during the herd liquidation of 2015. The 2015 kill was driven by dry weather, but we were also coming off a 29 million head herd. At the end of June 2018 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) pegged the herd at 27.1 million head. More cows are being killed out of a smaller pool.
From figure 2 we can see the size of the pool. The ABS report the number of cows and heifers over one year old for the end of June. In 2018 the female herd stood at 12.15 million head, only a small decline on 2017, but up on the recent low of 11.45 million set in 2016.
The female herd was relatively low, and slaughter has been very high for the first five months of the year. Figure 3 shows how this might affect the female herd this year. Figure 3 shows female slaughter for the year to May, as a proportion of the herd for the previous June. This year we have seen 16% of the female herd slaughtered in first five months. This is the highest level in at least 40 years.
In 2015 the first five months saw 14.6% of the female herd slaughtered, and this precipitated a 14% fall in the female herd over the next two years.
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Key points
* Female slaughter for the year to May has been extraordinarily high.
* In the last 40 years we’ve never killed a larger proportion of the female herd.
* If strong female slaughter continues, we are likely to see a larger than 10% fall in the female herd.
What does this mean?
We are only looking at the first five months of the year, and the female cull does have time to slow down. However, the numbers shown here give a good indication of where the female herd is headed over the next couple of years.
A conservative estimate would put the female herd decrease at 14% over the next two years. This wipes off 1.7 million head of the female herd taking it back to 10.4 million head, the lowest level since 1988. With this we would obviously see serious impacts on the calf crop, cattle supply and prices.
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