Mecardo Analysis - Victorian yarding levels spring into action
- By: "Farm Tender" News
- Ag Tech News
- Nov 01, 2018
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By Matt Dalgleish | Source: MLA, NLRS, Mecardo.
Since the middle of 2018 Victorian lamb yarding levels have been elevated, with average weekly throughput since July running 48% above the seasonal five-year average levels. Into early October, the Victorian lamb yarding levels dipped below the seasonal trend, but the recent figures show volume is starting to expand. This piece takes a closer look at the Victorian spring flush pattern, particularly during drier and wetter scenarios
Rainfall decile data for Victoria from the January to September period shows that much of the state has been experiencing below average to very much below average conditions, except for the southwestern coastal fringe.
Given the dry conditions, it's unsurprising to have seen weekly Victorian lamb yarding levels remain above 40,000 head throughout much of winter. During this period, we usually see the weekly throughput dip towards the 20,000 head region (Figure 1).
Analysis of weekly Victorian lamb yarding levels during drier and wetter seasons highlights that dry times are often synonymous with higher average weekly yarding levels into the second half of the season, an earlier start to the spring flush and a lower end of season peak (Figure 2). In contrast, the wet season pattern demonstrates a delayed spring flush. Typically, not evident until into early November with a steep rise to the late December seasonal peak.
A summary of average weekly throughput levels for Victorian lamb categories over the last four weeks indicates that restocker, Merino and trade lambs remain in short supply. Light lambs have been averaging weekly throughput levels that are 24% higher than the five-year trend and heavy lambs are 9% ahead. All other categories are 8-40% lower than the seasonal average (Table 1).
It is possible that the Bureau of Meteorology forecast for a dry start to summer is contributing to a lack of restocker lamb buyers. It may also be boosting the numbers counted as light lambs, which are being snapped up by processors keen to fill orders.
Key points
* Average weekly Victorian lamb yarding levels have been running 48% above the seasonal trend since July as drier conditions encourage producers to bring forward stock.
* During early October Victorian lamb throughput numbers eased below the seasonal average level, which is uncharacteristic for a dry season yarding trend.
* Victorian lamb throughput has jumped 35% week on week to signal the beginning of the spring flush.
What does this mean?
The 2018 Victorian lamb throughput pattern has been trending above the dry season pattern for much of the second half of the year. The extra numbers presented earlier may be responsible for the delayed start to the spring flush, but it appears underway now with this week’s 35% increase in volume to the highest weekly yarding for Victorian lamb since the start of the year at nearly 67,000 head.
Given the BOM forecast for November points to a continuation of the dry conditions extending across much of Victoria, it’s likely we will see the 2018 Victorian lamb yarding pattern continuing to expand in line with the dry season trend. Next week we will look at key saleyards across Victoria that contribute to the swelling lamb numbers during spring to see if we can glean any insight from their throughput behaviour thus far.
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