Mixed fortunes for Canadian Farmers in 2024…

By Peter McMeekin

Statistics Canada's final field crop survey for 2024 reveals a season of mixed fortunes for Canadian farmers, with wheat, oats, soybean and pulse production showing robust growth alongside output declines in canola and barley, which appear to have suffered most due to a period of intense and extremely dry heat throughout July and August.

This year's growing season in Canada, particularly across the prairies, was a real roller coaster. Farmers had to contend with the lower export prices offered throughout the 2023/24 marketing year while facing challenging late-season weather. The Prairies had a promising start to the 2024 growing season, receiving timely precipitation during seeding, although cool conditions delayed crop development in some areas. However, a lack of rain as the summer progressed, coupled with hot weather, resulted in lower yields in some areas compared with 2023.

Favourable weather conditions throughout the autumn saw the majority of this year’s harvest completed ahead of schedule, with Statistics Canada reporting that most crops were off the paddock and production known before the data was collected for the November field crop survey.

The Canadian government agency pegged the nation’s wheat harvest at 34.96 million metric tonne, the third biggest on record and 6.1 per cent higher than last year’s production. While the final planted area was reported at 10.83 million hectares, the harvested area came in at 10.65Mha for an average yield of 3.27 metric tonne per hectare.

The result was boosted by a remarkable 43.6 per cent year-on-year hike in durum wheat output to 5.87MMT due to an eight percentage point jump in the harvested area to 2.57Mha and a 32.8 per cent increase in yield to 2.29MT/ha. Canada’s biggest wheat category is spring wheat, and production inched up by 2.2 per cent compared with 2023 to 26.08MMT, with a 2.5 per cent fall in the harvested area to 18.69Mha more than offset by a 4.9 per cent increase in yield to 3.45MT/ha. Meanwhile, winter wheat output came in at 3.01MMT, 93.8 per cent lower than the 2023 crop.

At the provincial level, wheat output in Saskatchewan climbed 12.2 per cent to 16.5MMT in 2024, 47.1 per cent of the national total. In Alberta, the wheat harvest was 6.4 per cent higher than last year at 9.9MMT and 28.3 per cent of the total. Wheat production in Manitoba edged 0.7 per cent higher to 5.5MMT, for 14.5 per cent of Canadian output.

The spring wheat quality is reported to be excellent across all classes, with a high proportion of the crop classified as No. 2 or better. Testing of the samples collected by the Canadian Grain Commission as of October 24 had 94 per cent of the Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) crop falling within the top 2 grades. The average protein content of CWRS1 and CWRS2 at that time was 14.1 per cent and 13.8 per cent, respectively.

This year’s canola crop disappointed after plenty of early season promise. The national crop decreased by 7 per cent from 19.19MMT last year to 17.85MMT in 2024, well below Statistics Canada’s September yield model based prediction of 18.98MMT. The result was primarily driven by a 6.9 per cent fall in the average yield to 2.02MT/ha due to increased disease pressure and drought stress, with the final harvested area only down 0.1 per cent to 8.85Mha, after 8.91Mha was seeded back in the Canadian spring.

Canola output in Saskatchewan declined by 5.1 per cent to 9.8MMT on the back of a 3.0 per cent fall in yield and a 2.2 per cent decrease in the harvested area. To the west in Alberta, canola output fell 8.5 per cent to 5.1MMT, with the 9.0 per cent drop in the average yield only partially offset by a 0.6 per cent increase in the harvested area. Farmers in Manitoba reported an 11.1 per cent decrease in canola output despite a 6.2 per cent expansion in the harvested area, with Statistics Canada laying blame on challenging weather conditions early in the growing season.

Barley production across the Prairies was higher than the September yield model estimate but still tumbled by 8.6 per cent to 8.14MMT million tonnes in 2024. This was primarily due to an 11.4 per cent fall in the harvested area to 2.39Mha, after 2.59Mha was planted earlier in the year, and follows a decrease of 10.8 per cent last year compared to the 9.99MMT crop reaped in 2022. The sharp decline in the harvested area was partially offset by a 3.3 per cent increase in the average yield to 3.4MT/ha.

Statistics Canada’s oat production estimate of 3.36MMT exceeded both the September yield model forecast of 3.02MMT and last year’s output of 2.64MMT. Significantly higher yields in Manitoba had a large impact on the 27 per cent increase in harvest volume, as did a 20.3 per cent climb in the total harvested area to just under 1Mha. However, this year’s crop was still 35.7 per cent lower than the 2022 harvest of 5.23MMT, the biggest since 1971.

An increase of 4.3 per cent in the average corn yield to 10.59MT/ha was completely neutralised by the 4.6 per cent fall in the harvested area to 1.45 million hectares, ultimately leading to a 0.5 per cent decrease in output to 15.35MMT. Ontario farmers, who grow almost two-thirds of national output, reported production of 9.6MMT in 2024, down 3.5 per cent year-on-year. The province’s average yield increased 1.7 per cent to a record 11.3MT/ha due to good growing conditions, while the harvested area fell by 5.1 percentage points to 0.85Mha.

Production of soybeans rose 8.4 per cent nationally to 7.6 million tonnes in 2024 as a result of a 7 per cent increase in yield to 3.3MT/ha and a 1.3 per cent increase in the harvested area to 2.29Mha. Ontario is the main production hub, and growers reported a 7.9 per cent rise in output to 4.4MMT after the harvested area increased by 7.0 per cent to 1.25Mha, and the average yield inched 0.8 per cent higher to 3.48MT/ha.

The main pulse crops in Canada are dry field peas and lentils, with production of both increasing substantially compared to the 2023 harvest. According to Statistics Canada, the yellow and green pea volumes increased, with collective output rising 14.9 per cent to 3.0MMT, largely thanks to much higher yields in Saskatchewan, where more than 50 per cent of the nation’s peas are grown. Meanwhile, lentil production jumped by 35 per cent to 2.43MMT, more than recovering the ground lost last year, again thanks to a good season in Saskatchewan, which accounted for 86.4 per cent of the 2024 harvest total.

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