Take note and ingest but….

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By Dwain Duxson.

Take note and ingest but…. - In Ag we are surrounded by forecasting. You may have noticed over the last few days Rabobank and ABARES are going head to head to forecast the Winter Grain Crop. They are close on the number of Hectares sown but differ on the number of tonnes we can expect.

Others doing forecasting in Ag include any Weather site/guru worth their salt. Banks are always forecasting, and all the Rural Property companies are making predictions. And you only have to look at how the market hangs off the USDA report when it comes out.

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It's always difficult forecasting in Ag because they are mostly forecasting on what we call the uncontrollables, like the markets and the weather. But mostly, they are a bloody good guide, and you'd be a fool not to take some notice. I mean, we only have to look at the domestic Hay market (no one does it); buyers and sellers would kill for some kind of idea as to what is produced or what's in storage.

Economists and the like use formulas and ratios to come up with the numbers, and some of these have been reasonably accurate over time. Markets take notice of these outcomes, too. GrainCorps share went up on the back of a favourable forecast by ABARES and Rabo yesterday. But as we have said before, take note and ingest, but don't go making snap decisions on the back of them. There's a bloody long way to go. Do you read much into some of the forecasting that is presented forward? Reply to dwaind@farmtender.com.au

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