The Farm Tender Hay Report – Predicting supply and demand is currently an inexact science

By: "Farm Tender" News
Water & Irrigation News
Sep 24, 2019
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Predicting supply and demand is currently an inexact science.

For the fortnight up to the 25th of September 2019 - Volume 42.

This article is bought to you by Pepperton and Forest Springs Merinos.

Enquiry for everything to do with Hay has gone up a couple of notches, and some, in the last fortnight. Whether it's potential sellers wanting more info on prices, buyers wanting to know what will be available and at what price or Haymakers looking for either Hay Machinery, Equipment or Merchandise.

One factor that might have a determining factor on demand for Hay is that some Dairy Farmers that Irrigate have indicated they are much more likely to buy Hay to feed the Cows than buy Water to grow grass. Another factor is that some Dairy Farmers have signed more lucrative Milk supply contracts than in the past and will look to ramp up supply to recoup some of the losses from the last few of years. However, it's not that simple, and one particular scenario certainly doesn't fit all.

As the guys say below, we will all be much the wiser when the bales start hitting the ground on mass. Volumes look to be a more tricky thing to predict than pricing. Our Farm Tender sales guys seem to be pretty much on the same page as far as pricing is concerned. They are the people talking to the many people on the ground on a dialy basis.

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Here are some of the quotes from the last fortnight of sales:

Expected prices for New Season Hay seem to have settled over the previous fortnight. Deals have been made around the $250/mt mark for Cereal Hay and $300/mt for Vetch Hay.

Old Season Hay is still trickling through the system but at varied rates.

We will have more of an update in two weeks.

We go around the grounds to see what our Farm Tender Salespeople have to say:

Paul Grayling - Northern Vic based

Paul said - We are seeing a significant rise in New Season Hay enquiries with bales starting to be pushed out now in places, Anything that's ready to go is being snapped up with prices sitting at around the $230-$250/mt mark for Cereals. There is plenty of interest in Protein Hay; it's fetching anywhere from $260-$300/mt depending on quality and location. Feed test results will determine where prices sit for each particular lot.

Bonnie Kenner - North East Vic based

Bonnie said - The phones are flat out at the moment with a huge amount of enquiries coming in regarding New Seasons Hay. We expect these enquiries to reach another level once the Hay is actually in the bale. It's been difficult to gauge the quantities that will be available, and there has been a lot of speculation, but for now, it's a bit of a waiting game. Prices are still looking to be around $250/mt ex-farm for Cereals.

Shane Ruyg - Vic Mallee based

Shane said - Still plenty of enquiry for New Season Hay with the likelihood that we will see some Vetch and Cereal Hay being baled sometime this week or next in areas above or below the Murray River. Pricing has settled a bit, with Cereal pricing at $230-$250/mt and Vetch $275-$300/mt ex paddock depending on where you are in VIC and SA and slightly higher pricing in NSW and QLD.

Mike Pickard - Southern Queensland based

Mike said - Mike is away on leave and unavailable for comment

Dwain Duxson - Farm Tender & DelayPay

For more information on selling or buying Hay contact the following:

Paul Grayling – 0447 069 082 or paulg@farmtender.com.au

Shane Ruyg – 0447 922 604 or shaner@farmtender.com.au

Mike Pickard – 0429 677 636 or mikep@farmtender.com.au

Bonnie Kenner - 0488 789 012 or bonniek@farmtender.com.au

Or 1300 Farming (1300 327 646)

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DelayPay is for both Buyers and Sellers

Get payment terms for buyers and payment security for sellers

If you are keen to know more ring Dwain 0427 011 900 or Kelsey 0409 117 730

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www.farmtender.com.au

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Ad - Forest Springs Merinos has its on-property Ram sale on the 26th of September - Ad